Well, it’s official; Benny is running for mayor in the May local elections – which is hardly a surprise, but when we asked him during a televised interview with him, he refused to confirm that he was.

He started his time at the Town Hall when Miguel Ávila was the Mayor, back in 1979, and since the early 80’s has rarely been out of the Mayor’s seat: from 1991 to 1995 (a PSOE/PILH coalition) and from 1999 to 2003 (joint PP/PSOE & PILH coalition).

This is his second time as candidate for the CA – an obscure regionalist party that took on a new lease of life when he left the PA – in the meantime, the PA has been losing weight.

In the opposing corners there is Paco Prados, a teacher at the Al Andaluz high school and Almuñécar roots going back some way, and Trini Herrera for the PP, who takes over from Juan Luis González as the party candidate.

Also in the political ring there are two minor players: Fermín Tejero for the IU, who doesn’t pull any punches, and the leader of the Mayor’s old party (PA), whose name I quite frankly can’t remember.

Which way is it going to go in May – quite a few people ask me. My own personal forecast – which is as valid as anybody’s, is that Benny will win, but lose councillors (at present he has 10 of the municipal total of 21). The PSOE will take a tumble, as they will all over Spain, because quite simply they were in power during the crisis. The PP will see an increase, as will the IU, as many disaffected PSOE socialists will opt for the left-wing IU. The PSOE’s only hope of stopping a landslide loss in Almuñécar is the fact that Paco is a local lad, well known to everybody.

Final forecast of scores:

Mayor’s party down from 10 to 8, PSOE down from 4 to 2, IU up from 1 to 2-3, PA stays at one, and PP increases from 5 to 6.

The underlying significance of such a result is that the Mayor would lose his ability to govern.

You see, at present, with only one councillor difference between his party’s share are the combined force of the opposition, it would only take one councillor to turn coat – not unheard of – and join Benny, which is why there hasn’t been a coalition council in power and Benny in the opposition.

However, if Benny only draws eight, instead of ten, then a coalition against him would be much more stable and might lead them to form one.

Anyway, this is my first and last political comment during the run up to the elections and I wish them all – equal – luck.

(News: Andalucia, Granada, Almunecar)