The big European news today is the Spanish governments vow to block any plans by Catalonia to hold a referendum on independence on 9th November 2014.

The Justice Minister Alberto Ruiz-Gallardon put it quite simply, “the poll will not be held,” he promised, just a couple of minutes after Catalonia’s President Artur Mas said that an agreement had been reached amongst all the political parties in the region for the referendum to go ahead. Both the ruling Popular Party of Mariano Rajoy and the Socialist opposition have always been firmly against any independence referendum in the region.

The Catalan independence movement has been gathering momentum in recent times, mainly due to the economic crisis and the feeling amongst it’s 7.5 million population that Spain is ‘stealing’ their wealth in taxes, which in turn fuels a feeling that their struggle is comparable to the anti-colonial battles of Africa and Asia during the early to mid 20th century.
The big question is, of course, would an independent Catalonia lead to a better Spain/Catalonia/Europe? The answer is almost certainly no. Let’s look at some good and bad stuff surrounding the argument:

The region already has a good deal of autonomy and has better levels of education, public services, industrial development and has by far the largest population in Spain. Without the taxes collected in Catalonia, the Spanish central government would face a major crisis, possibly even dwarfing the recent economical problems. One only has to note that the GDP per capita in the region is 18 percent higher than that of the rest of Spain and as much as 65 – 70 percent higher than in some of the poorest regions.

Many of the Catalonian political parties believe that a much higher percentage of the taxes collected in the region, should remain in the region… this is pretty much the standard nationalist rhetoric, but even has a good deal of support in the rest of Spain, with many Spaniards believing that the fiscal distribution model could and should be revamped, but they also believe that it is not a good enough reason for complete independence.

So, what are the real arguments against independence? Well, the nationalists do keep harping on about how an independent Catalonia would be like the Netherlands or even Sweden, much the same sort of argument being used by the Scottish nationalists in their current independence campaign. But in the case of Catalonia, this really would not be the case. A recent EU study was not good reading for the Catalonian nationalists… stating that the region had the worst regional government in Spain, citing corruption, lack of effectiveness and accountability similar to that of some regions of Greece, Italy and even the former Eastern Bloc!

Add together the consequences of the political corruption scandals, an ongoing economic crisis, the most indebted regional government in the country with it’s credit rating slashed by all the credit agencies and then throw into the mix that an independent Catalonia would automatically be out of the EU and have to renegotiate membership… which might prove difficult with an angry Spain wielding a big, fat veto!

We are in no way taking sides here, but with further conflict between the central government and Catalans in the headlines again today, we thought it worth taking a look at the whole picture from an independent standpoint to try and get an idea of what is actually happening.

What do you think?