According to a study carried out by the Universidad de Granada, the Costa Tropical will lose between five and 25 metres of coastline; i.e., beaches, by 2050.

In the coming decades, climate change will pose an additional challenge to preserving these spaces and the unique ecosystems they contain.

In this context, the Grupo de Dinámica de Flujos Ambientales (GDFA) at the University of Granada has led the ICCOAST project, which aims to predict the progression of erosion and flooding on the Andalusian coast under a climate scenario that predicts high (Co2) emissions by the end of the 21st century.

The methodology developed by ICCOAST considers key factors such as climate variability and its random nature, the combined effect of coastal storms and river floods, the availability and characteristics of sediment (grain size), the contribution of sediment from rivers and barrancos, and the influence of infrastructure such as dams, ports, breakwaters, and seafront paseos.

The GDFA has applied this methodology in the provinces of Granada and Almería, and has coordinated its extension to Huelva, Cádiz, and Málaga through the Estudio 7-Sands Joint Venture.

According to the Panel Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC), the average sea level could rise between 15 and 23 centimeters in the most optimistic scenario and up to one meter in the most pessimistic one by the end of the century. This rise, along with the increase in storms and the growing concentration of population in coastal areas, will intensify the risks of flooding and economic losses.

Andalucía’s coastline has suffered decades of intensive exploitation leading to erosion, sediment accumulation, and severe flooding. Traditionally, coastal management has generally been restricted to solving problems through specific actions such as dredging, beach regeneration, or groyne construction, without addressing the complexity and variability of coastal processes, which in many cases has exacerbated the impacts.

Editorial comment: the study has been handed over to the Junta de Andalucía, which will most probably ignore it and continue to let coastal municipalities build along their coastlines, of course.

(News: Costa Tropical, Granada, Andalucia)

Keywords: Coastal Sea Levels, Beach Erosion, Groynes, River Sediment, Urban Expansion, University of Granada

news, andalucia, granada, costa tropical, coastal sea levels, beach erosion, groynes, river sediment, urban expansion, university of granada

Reader’s comment: “Joni Mitchell expressed it succinctly in 1970, the lyrics flash through my mind almost every time I hear about exciting new developments on the coast.” – George