Not Over The Hump Yet

According to the regional Minister of Health, Jesús Aguirre, the sixth wave is not likely to end soon but rather there will be peaks and troughs.

AND Health Committee AguirreFurthermore, he considers that as much as 80% of the Andalusian population will have been infected by the beginning of February.

He does not feel as optimistic as the Minister of Health for the Central Government, Carolina Darias, who stated that we have reached the peak of contagion or are close to it.

He also pointed out that the figures are not that trustworthy because many people are getting positive readings on self-testing kits and are not reporting it to their regional health authorities.

Yesterday there were a total of 17,548 new cases in 24 hours, which is 6,371 more than the previous Thursday. There were also 31 deaths within Andalucía which was three more than the previous 24-hour period.

This increase breaks the tendency of the last few days where the number of cases were steadily dropping, prompting Central-Government, Minister Darías to make her optimistic observation.

As for hospitals, at the moment there are 2,142 hospital cases (52 more than the previous day) of which 238 are being treated in the Intensive Care Unit.

He concluded by ruling out imposing new restrictions but will maintain the Covid-Certificate requirement.

Editorial comment: there only appears to be one true indication of how the contagion is going, and that is hospital occupation and deaths. The cases-per-100k indicator is no longer valid because of the self-testing going on. Even if there are people that test positive and do not report it, you also have tens of thousands of people who are infected or have been infected and not had any symptoms, thus being completely unaware of their condition.

(News: Andalucia)

  1 comment for “Not Over The Hump Yet

  1. Darren
    January 21, 2022 at 3:31 pm

    Maria Van Kerkhove, Technical Lead of the World Health Organization (WHO) summed it up like this: “This won’t be the last variant of concern”.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/18/who-says-omicron-wont-be-last-covid-variant-as-global-cases-surge-by-20percent-in-a-week.html

    The problem is that infections have increased massively, and each infection is a chance to hatch a shiny new variant. There’s already an Omicron-alike in Denmark spreading rapidly. Yeah, it’d be great if the ‘really contagious but not as harmful’ trend continues, but there’s no guarantee of that.

    Even the ‘relatively benign’ Omicron is still doing damage…the 28-day death figure is still creeping up according to this: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    You also have to be a little cautious taking hospital occupation and deaths as your gospel figure…in peaks of infection, people to tend to avoid hospital treatment because the hospitals are full of people with covid. With covid peaks, *excess deaths* also seem to spike (excess deaths are the number of people who die at this time of year over and above what could normally be expected, with a bunch of factors worked in (weather; fuel/food/housing etc prices; demographics of the population you’re considering; and so on). Excess death figures are also quite a good way of double checking on governments who you think might be massaging the numbers. There’s a couple I could point at, especially from early on in the pandemic, but that’s just too tiring.

    So you get people who die *because of covid* but not necessarily *of covid* (“yeah, it might be a heart attack but the hospitals are full, so imma just gonna sit here, munch on aspirin and hope for the best” sort of thing).

    Also this Omicron is a bit of an insidious beastie, so it’s quite probable that it’s triggering off some pre-existing conditions and those are what goes on the certificate if testing gets missed, or it sneaks in through the gaps.

    Basically, it’ll probably be years before we find out what’s happening now, if ever. Statistics are an embuggerance, and they give me a headache, frankly, but just like washing-up, it needs to be done periodically. There are so many opinions, politics, arse-covering, trolls, and just triple-distilled bollocks floating about that finding out what’s going on is difficult. It always was, but this is a pie that everyone has a finger in. So to speak. Something, something, signal-to-noise ratio and chaff etc.

    We know that masks help a bit. We know that keeping your distance does too, a little bit. Inside is more dangerous than outside; and upwind is best (if you know you don’t have a dose). Gotta just keep doing what we’ve been doing; boring as it is.

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