Quite a few conservative voters that I have spoken to are disgusted with the PP, vowing never to vote for them again in the general elections, preferring either not to vote or to vote for one of the alternative smaller parties that have sprung up to harvest the wide-spread anti-corruption indignation.
Quite apart from the corruption – which also splatters the main Socialist party, by the way – many moderate conservatives are very dismayed and “turned off” by the hard swing to the right by the Partido Popular (conservatives), so much so that the Prime Minister has all but given up on the centre ground.
Conversely, the hard-line or old guard PP (known as Aznaristas after the previous conservative PM) accuse present PM Rajoy of swinging around widely and having “wrecked the gearbox ” of the party.
Despite the desperate moves to appease the hardliners (abortion etc) a new party of the disaffected conservatives has appeared (VOX), headed by an ETA kidnap victim and ex-PP congressman, who will be eating away on the right flank of the PP.
The reason for the appearance of VOX is that many conservatives believe that the Government was too quick and willing to free ETA terrorist prisoners after the law that had been used to hold them (Parot) was overturned by the European Court.
ETA victims feel betrayed by the very party that has been the most intransigent against making peace-process concessions to ETA in the form of early prisoner releases or their being transferred closer to home to prisons in the Basque Lands.
On the 25th of May we will be having the European Elections, which will be watched closely and the results judged as an indicator for the coming regional elections next year.
What Spain will probably see in the next general election is a fragmentation of the bi-partisan electoral system into a myriad of minor parties so that neither of the two main parties will ever hold a governing majority again because the Spanish general public is disgusted to its very bones with the PP conservatives and PSOE socialists.
Speaking of the PSOE and its seemingly perpetual hold on Andalucia, with the growing corruption scandal over the ERE’s and now the scandal over uncontrolled grants to private academies, it seems very unlikely that they will be able to hold onto the Junta de Andalucía.
As it was, the ERE corruption scandal had already eaten enough into its voter base for the party to enter into a coalition with the far-left IU to hold onto the Regional Government after the last regional elections.
The PP actually won more votes than the PSOE during the said elections, thanks to the same wave of discontent against the socialists that brought the conservatives to power, not only in Central Government, but also in most regional ones, too.
In short, the PSOE can only hope that the PP advance will recede thanks to that party’s own colossal corruption scandals and the indignation over its policies whilst in power.
However, few would consider that a change of political colour in the regional seat of power could be anything but long overdue and positive.